BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 12 DRAFKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got an 11-fight card at Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some adequate competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 3rd seat this week to max it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at the $30k prize, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Main Event STACK — Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung
For me, this is an easy stack in money week. I think we readily have a floor of 100 using Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. It also guarantees us the winner. As I have mentioned several times previously, we don’t need 6 wins in money games, therefore play with those kind of games all you have to do is conquer half the field. Normally 4 wins or 400+ points is great enough to cash in most cash games. Even if you have a solid lean on this fight I still recommend stacking.
GPP play of this week — Jairzinho Rozenstruik — $9,000
Rozenstruik gets the highest ITD line on the card in -140 and he can hit 100+ DK points by obtaining that in around 1. The worry here would be him being on his back in around 1 and then scoring zero points through that and then going out and obtaining a KO in round 2. Or no KO in any way. Either of these would take him away the optimal lineup so we need this struggle to keep standing and ideally an early KO. I think that’s extremely possible and he’ll be a heart GPP drama of mine . He isn’t the best money game play however because he can be placed on his back and be stuck there and perhaps even lose the battle that way. I’m OK with him cash, but I won’t be making a priority like I’m being overweight in GPPs.
Play of this week — Anderson Dos Santos — $7,900
This betting line is all about pickem’ with a slight lean towards Dos Santos. However, Ewell is your preferred on DraftKings and is $400 greater than ADS. Ewell is likewise the striker so for him to score highly he’s likely going to want a complete finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos’ strength though. Ewell has difficulty staying off his back and when ADS can put him he could submit him. Or he could rack up numerous takedowns for a high decision score. I like the value we are getting on him $7.9k and that I like he should be seeking to grapple in this particular fight. That is why I had to select him as my puppy of this week.
Fade of the week — Syuri Kondo $8,000
There aren’t any real easy fades this week. I do have a full fade on Kondo though because she seems to be purely a striker and I think Ashely Yoder’s best path to success is by way of grappling. If Kondo isn’t at a striking match for 15-minutes I really don’t see the way she scores tremendously unless she gets a finish. I don’t believe she has KO power, therefore I believe it’s purely the substantial strikes and the triumph bonus that we would be relying on here. I’d rather take a fighter with more of a chance to complete or who is more likely to grapple. That is exactly why Kondo is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 81-51 to get +251.89un (+$25,189) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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